国海证券官网:预计公司2020H1 原铝生产量约125 万吨(权益约110 万吨)

2021-07-19 20:21:15 by Admin 内盘pz
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  本报告导读:

      公司预告2021H1归母净利润同比+640%722%,表现超市场预期,预计下半年铝价中枢维持高位,公司产销逐步释放,利润弹性或将更为明显。

      投资要点:

      维持增持评级:公司预告2021H1 业绩同比+640%722%,表现超预期,展望后续铝供需拐点已至,价格中枢有望维持高位,碳中和背景下公司水电铝成本优势或更将凸显,全年业绩有望超预期。维持20212023 年EPS至1.18/1.68/1.80 元,维持目标价至17.70 元,维持增持评级。

      业绩超预期,系量价齐升贡献:公司预告预计2021H1 实现归母净利润1820 亿元,同比+640%722%, Q1 归母净利约6.8 亿,故测算Q2 归母净利润约为11.213.2 亿,环比+65%94%。业绩表现略超预期。随着文山,海鑫2 期等项目陆续投产,预计公司2020H1 原铝生产量约125 万吨(权益约110 万吨),同比增长约20 万吨,增量明显;而2021H1 长江现货铝价约17427 元/吨,同比+32.7%,量价齐升助力公司业绩表现超预期,测算Q2 归母净利中枢约12.2 亿元,创历史最佳盈利水平(2021Q2 铝价18565元/吨(+14.3%))。受云南限电影响,测算2021Q2 公司原铝产量约60 万吨,较Q1 下滑约5 万吨,后续产能产量有望逐渐恢复。

      铝价中枢有望维持高位,未来业绩更值期待:近期在内蒙,云南限电、双控等影响下,铝价重拾涨势,展望后续国内电解铝产能天花板已至,需求不断增长,电解铝行业迎来实质性拐点,预计未来铝价中枢有望维持高位,公司作为国内绿色水电铝龙头,碳中和背景下成本优势将逐步凸显,利润弹性将更为明显。

      催化剂:停产产能加速复产,铝价加速上扬

      风险提示:原材料价格上涨超预期、需求不及预期,艾德不是题材热点股,眼光请放长远,别短视。[胜利] ,我经历了两牛两熊,稳的一批 ,真的气死我了,本来想回撤到60天线低吸的,就是不到[摊手] ,心里万马奔腾 ,我早盘还追买了,更草 ,Carlos 斯利姆 Egyptian Lu, this position came from Mexico'stelecommunication big shot this March just to surpass "the stock god"巴菲特 to become the world second big rich and powerful people, nowhe will work as 13 years world richest family's Bill Gates has laggedbehind the horse, became the new world richest family by 67.8 billionUS dollars family property. He surmounted Gates to have what secret,which he and do Gates also have to take the world richest familycommonly place?
This year 67 year-old 斯利姆 although is surnamed Slim (slenderly),but his wealth quite is actually plump Because 斯利姆 under flagAmericas migration communication company (AmericaMovil) the stockprice from this March rose to 6 moon madness 27%, when this yearsecond quarter conclusion, 斯利姆 the body property alreadyachieved 67800000000. This numeral was equal to Mexico GDP 8%, hassurpassed Microsoft founder Bill - Gates 59.2 billion US dollarsproducing.
Increases the family fortunes the road: Youth already dew talent
斯利姆 when youth 代便displays his investment talent. ThisLebanese immigrant's descendant when 11 years old makes the life thefirst investment - purchase government to deposit the bond. When 15year-old time, he already became the Mexican biggest bank shareholder.
In 斯利姆 looked like that, the father is teacher which leads himto enter the business circle. The child time, father each week cangive him 5 pesos spending money under, but requests him to record eachexpenditure. Until now, on 斯利姆 the office bookshelf, he also waskeeping 5 same year accounts this, the above recorded he has boughtthe maize meal round cake, is frying in oil the circle cake and hasdrunk the drink.
斯利姆 the father in Mexico City the difficult time which sieges,has bought a real estate in the town center. Died after him, he gave斯利姆 has left behind a rich inheritance.
Recollected the father same year decision, 斯利姆 said: "That needcourage." Is precisely the obeying the father on by oneself, 斯利姆learned has done business the knack. " Any appropriate investmentfinally can obtain the repayment. "
In 1982, Mexico had the economic crisis, the currency devaluation,everybody withdrew the investment in abundance, changed the capital USand Europe. In the Mexican economical prospect not in the situationwhich favors, 斯利姆 to the low price purchased many has borderedon bankrupt the tobacco enterprise and the dining chain-like company.After several years, these enterprises' properties greatly increase,increased the family fortunes the road for him to build the solidfoundation.
These merely are starts, 斯利姆 a bigger opportunity appeared in1990. At that time Mexico has raised a state-owned enterpriseprivatization tide, 斯利姆 seized the chance to buy the Mexicotelephone company telco (Telmex). Takes over this family telephonecompany telco when him, company's efficiency extremely low, installs atelephone line to need several months even several years, in industryin the reputation is very bad.
However, 斯利姆 successfully transformed it a modernized, thespecialized big enterprise. Now, the Mexico 90% telephone channel allcontrol by 斯利姆 the palm. Depends upon this money tree, 斯利姆has gradually founded own huge industry empire, one develops into theLatin American richest family step by step from the Mexican richestfamily, until now world richest family.
斯利姆 supports a little Shi Chengjin talent as if, he thought with巴菲特 compares him to do is more thorough than the investment, hefavors personally handles the industry.
以后遇到不会翻译的句子上hao123网最下面有一个在线翻译,摩登
摩登----形容词。外来词音译。
摩登来自拉丁词根mod的模型。
英语modern times 的中文读音.它是上世纪八九十年代的新词,当时由于向西方学习,所以人们变得很渴望西方的生活方式,因此就有了这个从英语偕音来的词,人们就用它来表达他们的这种愿望,在设计领域来说:"摩登"是时尚,流行,前卫,个性的表现
在建筑领域来说:比较现在化的,具有先进科技的表现.,modern
现代的,时尚的,摩登音译于modem,中文意思`现代的,时尚的郭雯

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